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Bayes theorem the geometry of changing beliefs

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3Blue1Brown

Perhaps the most important formula in probability.
Help fund future projects: https://www.patreon.com/3blue1brown
An equally valuable form of support is to simply share some of the videos.
Special thanks to these supporters: http://3b1b.co/bayesthanks
Home page: https://www.3blue1brown.com'>https://www.3blue1brown.com

The quick proof: https://youtu.be/U_85TaXbeIo

Interactive made by Reddit user Thoggalluth: https://nskobelevs.github.io/p5js/Bay...

The study with Steve:
https://science.sciencemag.org/conten...
http://www.its.caltech.edu/~camerer/E...

You can read more about Kahneman and Tversky's work in Thinking Fast and Slow, or in one of my favorite books, The Undoing Project.

Contents:
0:00 Intro example
4:09 Generalizing as a formula
10:13 Making probability intuitive
13:35 Issues with the Steve example



These animations are largely made using manim, a scrappy opensource python library: https://github.com/3b1b/manim

If you want to check it out, I feel compelled to warn you that it's not the most welldocumented tool, and it has many other quirks you might expect in a library someone wrote with only their own use in mind.

Music by Vincent Rubinetti.
Download the music on Bandcamp:
https://vincerubinetti.bandcamp.com/a...

Stream the music on Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/album/1dVyjw...

If you want to contribute translated subtitles or to help review those that have already been made by others and need approval, you can click the gear icon in the video and go to subtitles/cc, then "add subtitles/cc". I really appreciate those who do this, as it helps make the lessons accessible to more people.



3blue1brown is a channel about animating math, in all senses of the word animate. And you know the drill with YouTube, if you want to stay posted on new videos, subscribe: http://3b1b.co/subscribe

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Website: https://www.3blue1brown.com'>https://www.3blue1brown.com
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posted by Hemme1v